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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still