Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
