Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
